1. Trade is not shrinking – it is shapeshifting
The world is not de-globalising; it is rewiring. Trade volumes remain robust, but flows are rerouted: new corridors, new hubs, new partners. “Just in time” is giving way to more resilient, regional and friend-shored supply chains.
This increases complexity – and with it, demand for working capital and risk intermediation. The real economy needs pre-shipment and post-shipment finance, receivables discounting, and supply chain finance. Yet many banks, constrained by regulation and legacy systems, are stepping back from precisely these activities.
The result is a structural and growing trade finance gap. In our view, 2026 will see this gap widen further. That is not a macro footnote; it is an investable theme for those able to connect private capital to real trade flows with discipline and expertise.
2. Private credit is crowded – specialised trade credit is not
Private credit has moved from niche to mainstream. Large parts of the market – direct lending, leveraged loans, real estate credit – are now heavily intermediated and often priced to perfection. Correlations to public markets are higher than many allocators expected.
By contrast, short-dated trade and supply chain finance remain underexplored, despite structurally attractive characteristics:
- Self-liquidating exposures tied to identifiable transactions
- Short tenors, typically 30–180 days, providing low duration and reinvestment flexibility
- Floating rate structures linked to the real economy rather than market sentiment
- Cash flows are anchored in invoices, purchase orders and goods in transit
For investors, this can translate into robust risk-adjusted yields with historically low loss rates – if underwriting, diversification and governance are handled by specialist teams understanding trade.
We expect 2026 to be a year of greater dispersion across private credit strategies. In that environment, we believe the more compelling opportunities will lie in specialised, operationally intensive niches like trade finance rather than in generic credit beta.
3. Real assets now include the financial plumbing of trade
Tangible assets have been a core allocation for investors seeking inflation protection and stable cash flows. The definition is expanding. Beyond ports, roads and warehouses, investors are increasingly interested in what moves through that infrastructure – and how it is financed.
We see trade finance as part of the emerging category of “trade infrastructure” in financial form: short-dated, asset-backed exposures that finance the movement of goods across borders and supply chains.
Digitisation and better data are accelerating this shift. Trade documentation is moving online, transaction histories are richer, and AI-supported tools make it easier to monitor exposures and counterparties in real time. That does not remove risk, but it does make risk more transparent and manageable for those with the right processes.
Where we see resilient, risk-adjusted returns in 2026
A few areas stand out for discerning investors:
- Short-term, self-liquidating trade receivables from solid counterparties, structured in diversified portfolios.
- Supply chain finance in emerging and rerouted trade corridors, supported by strong local and technical expertise.
- ESG-aligned trade flows where the impact on genuine supply chains is tangible and measurable, not just labelled.
- Partnerships with specialised originators and managers who combine trade experience, legal rigour and robust servicing platforms.
None of this is a search for a free lunch. Jurisdictional, counterparty and operational risks require respect and specialist skills. The opportunity persists precisely because this is not an area that can be solved by capital alone.
Our conviction for 2026
As investors reassess which risk premia are truly justified, and as corporates and policymakers continue to rewire supply chains, we believe well-structured trade finance will remain one of the more compelling sources of resilient, risk-adjusted and genuinely uncorrelated returns.
For investors willing to look beyond the headlines and engage with the real plumbing of global commerce, 2026 may be the year that trade finance stops being the most boring part of finance – and starts becoming one of the smartest.
